Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: Estimation of hazard rates at extremely old ages poses serious challenges to researchers: 1 The observed mortality deceleration may be at least partially an artifact of mixing different birth cohorts with different mortality heterogeneity effect 2 Standard assumptions of hazard rate estimates may be invalid when risk of death is extremely high at old ages 3 Ages of very old people may be exaggerated. In this paper we propose an alternative approach, which gives an opportunity to resolve the first two problems by compiling data for more homogeneous single-year birth cohorts with hazard rates measured at narrow monthly age intervals. Possible ways of resolving the third problem of hazard rate estimation were elaborated.

Description: This paper recommends a 'macroview' of the Social Security program that is related to the broader economic and social environment now and in the future. OASDI is not simply a private-sector pension plan on a large scale. Instead, it provides socially determined claims on the future economy. Demography cannot be ignored, but it is not the sole determinant of what is desirable or affordable. From The Old-Age Crisis - Actuarial Opportunities -The 1996 Bowles Symposium, M-RS99-1.

Description: A glossary of terms.

Description: This paper looks at different ways to think about the economic relationships within the family and relate them to various ways of providing for retirement security within a Social Security and employer framework.

Description: This paper explores a range of public policy issues stemming from proposals to introduce some form of defined contribution system into Social Security in the U. S. and Canada. From In Defense of Pay-as-You-Go Paygo Financing of Social Security, M-RS99-1.

Description: This paper discusses the underlying nature of the Social Security program, certain erroneous views of the program, various Advisory Council proposed solutions to the long-range financing problems, and the probability that no solution stands any chance of being enacted. From The Old-Age Crisis - Actuarial Opportunities - The 1996 Bowles Symposium, M-RS99-1.

Description: This paper attempts to gather information regarding various components of the Canadian retirement income system, and to quantify the impact on the system of unanticipated morality improvements, particularly at age 65 and over, and of lower than expected equity returns. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.

Description: This paper discusses and reaches the conclusion that baby-boomers and younger workers need to be told that their Social Security benefits will be substantially less adequate than those of today's retirees, and that they need to know now so that they have time to take appropriate actions to have more retirement income available from other sources. From The Old-Age Crisis - Actuarial Opportunities - The 1996 Bowles Symposium, M-RS99-1.

Description: Paper focuses on the situation in Canada. First examined are the factors behind rising health-care costs resulting form two phenomena:changing cohort size and lower mortality among the elderly. Second examined are the are effects of lower than forecast mortality on pay-as-you-go systems. From 2005 Living to 100 and Beyond Monograph, M-LI05-1.